Implementation Of Performance-Based Hurricane Engineering (PBHE) In Cuba: Wind Risk Analysis Of A Single-Family House In Playa Cajío

Abstract

Cuba, located in a region of high cyclonic activity, faces significant economic losses in its housing sector. While Hazard, Vulnerability, and Risk (HVR) studies are fundamental for territorial management, to date, they have analyzed hazards in isolation. Performance-Based Hurricane Engineering (PBHE) emerges as an advanced alternative that integrates multiple hazards concurrently. This research proposes the implementation of the PBHE framework in Cuba, using a single-family house in Playa Cajío as a case study, and focusing exclusively on wind hazard analysis to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology. The six phases of PBHE were applied, ranging from the probabilistic wind characterization using the Gumbel distribution to loss estimation via Monte Carlo simulations. The results reveal highly directional performance: roof panels are the most vulnerable component, particularly under 90° wind directions, where the Expected Annual Loss (EAL) reaches 0.57% of the total replacement cost of the dwelling. Although the walls exhibit a low probability of failure, their collapse implies the total loss of the building under study, representing a risk of catastrophic consequences. The study demonstrates the applicability of PBHE for conducting high-resolution risk assessments, identifying specific vulnerabilities, and underpinning technical and economic mitigation strategies, thereby complementing existing territorial studies.