Probabilistic Analysis Of Inundation In Function Of Existing Drainage On First Order Roads

Abstract

This research is based on the analysis of the probability of flooding, focused on the hydraulic capacity of existing drainage in first order roads in the city of Santa Rosa, located in Ecuador. The area where the study is being carried out has a history of heavy flooding, which is considered a meteorological event that can reach the level of a natural disaster in the most unfavorable case, becoming a major threat in winter. Therefore, the objective of this work is to evaluate the road drainage system, by means of hydrological and hydraulic analysis methods, in order to determine the probability of flooding to which the area is exposed. In order to carry out this research, a methodology consisting of three parts has been proposed: hydrological analysis of the area, hydraulic analysis of the drains and probabilistic analysis of flooding based on the existing culverts in the first order road. The results show that the number of possible flood events suggests that the area will flood more than five times in five-year periods. In the winter of January, February, March and June, with the drains working at full capacity, the probability of flooding is 100%, which means that the existing drainage system is incapable of evacuating the maximum hydrological flows. It was also obtained, based on the return period flows, that the drainage can withstand up to 25 years working at its maximum hydraulic capacity.