INTEGRATED CLIMATE MAPPING FOR THE ADAPTATION AND CONSERVATION OF THE GRAN HUMEDAL DEL NORTE DE CIEGO DE ÁVILA

Abstract

This study developed integrated climate mapping to diagnose the vulnerability of the Gran Humedal del Norte de Ciego de Ávila (GHNCA) to climate change. Using QGIS, precipitation data from 50 meteorological stations (periods 1961-2000 and 2001-2020) were processed by applying the Ordinary Kriging geostatistical interpolation method to generate isohyet maps. This analysis revealed a significant spatial reconfiguration of rainfall, characterized by a contraction of the isohyets and a marked reduction in rainfall accumulation in the recent period, especially in the northern coastal strip. The results demonstrate that this decrease in precipitation acts in synergy with mean sea-level rise, amplifying critical threats such as saltwater intrusion into aquifers and soils, and coastal retreat. The generated mapping spatially identifies the areas of maximum vulnerability, constituting a fundamental tool for prioritizing multisectoral adaptation actions. It is concluded that the applied methodology is replicable and provides a solid basis for planning conservation and adaptation strategies in tropical coastal wetlands of the Caribbean.